eng Enviro Research Publishers Current Agriculture Research Journal 2347-4688 2321-9971 2025-04-30 13 1 112 121 24580 article Manu Raj Sharma 1 Nandan Kumar Satyam 1 Department of Geography, Remote Sensing Lab, Advance Research Centre, L. N. Mithila University, Darbhanga, Bihar, India. This study investigates the impact of rainfall variability on cereal crop productivity in the Baghmati-Kosi Doab (BKD) region of North Bihar, India, over three decades (1993–2022). The study identifies a declining trend in annual rainfall based on the Modified Mann-Kendall test (Z-Score = -1.28) and Sen’s slope estimator (-8.86mm/year). The analysis reveals significant variability in actual evapotranspiration (ET) compared to stable potential evapotranspiration (PET), indicating growing water availability challenges. Crop productivity trends suggest that maize, a relatively drought-resilient crop, showed consistent improvements. In contrast, wheat experienced moderate growth, and rice productivity stagnated due to its water-intensive nature. The findings highlight that declining rainfall and fluctuating ET pose significant risks to agricultural productivity, especially for water-dependent crops like rice, underscoring the vulnerability of the region's agriculture. The study emphasizes the critical need for adaptive strategies, including the adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties, efficient irrigation systems, and sustainable groundwater management. https://www.agriculturejournal.org/volume13number1/identification-of-precipitation-trends-evapotranspiration-variability-and-its-impact-on-grain-crop-productivity-in-baghmati-kosi-doab-2002-2023/ Baghmati-Kosi Doab; Crop productivity; Evapotranspiration; Rainfall variability; Water management