Determining the Impact of Rainfall on Major Crop Yields in Tamil Nadu using Vector Error Correction Model

Rajagopal Kamalanathan^*and Abdul Azees Sheik Abdullah

Department of Statistics, Salem Sowdeswari College, Salem, Tamil Nadu, India.

Corresponding Author Email:rknstat1@gmail.com

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CARJ.13.1.08

Article Publishing History

Received: 24 Mar 2025
Accepted: 18 Apr 2025
Published Online: 24 Apr 2025

Review Details

Reviewed by: Dr. Prerna Mehta
Second Review by: Dr. Vikram Agone
Final Approval by: Dr. José Luis da Silva Nunes

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Abstract:

This research explores the influence of rainfall on the yield of major crops in Tamil Nadu through the application of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Given the state’s reliance on agriculture, climatic factors especially rainfall play a pivotal role in determining crop performance across seasons. The study focuses on examining both the short-term variations and long-term equilibrium relationships between rainfall and the yields of key crops such as Cholam, Cumbu, and Maize. Leveraging the VECM framework, the analysis captures the cointegration between these variables, providing a nuanced understanding of how rainfall patterns affect agricultural productivity. The results reveal that rainfall exerts a significant long-term impact on crop yields, although its effects are moderated by seasonal shifts and regional disparities. These findings underscore the importance of developing adaptive strategies to address the challenges posed by irregular rainfall. Ultimately, the study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and farmers in Tamil Nadu, enabling more informed decision-making in the face of climate variability and changing weather patterns.

Keywords:

Cointegration; Stationary; Time Series; Vector Error Correction

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