Evaluating the influence of Climatic and Non- Climatic factors on Horticultural Production in India- An ARDL Approach

Reshma Vattekkad^1*, Manikandan Krishnan¹, Reji Krishna^2,3, Sowmya Sahadevan⁴, Dhanya Krishna^2,5 and Dhanya Renuka⁶

¹Department of Economics, The Gandhigram Rural Institute (DTBU), Gandhigram, Dindigul, Tamilnadu, India.

²Department of Commerce, Sree Narayana college Alathur Palakkad, Kerala, India.

³Government Arts College, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala University, Kerala, India.

⁵PSMO College, Tirurangadi (Affiliated to University of Calicut), Kerala, India.

⁶Department of Commerce, TKMM College, Nangiarkulangara (Affiliated to University of Kerala), Kerala, India.

Corresponding Author E-mail: reshma.p.manickath@gmail.com

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CARJ.13.1.36

Article Publishing History

Received: 24 Mar 2025
Accepted: 20 Apr 2025
Published Online: 29 Apr 2025

Review Details

Reviewed by: Dr. Narayan Gunadal
Second Review by: Dr. Rachel Aminu-Taiwo
Final Approval by: Dr. José Luis da Silva Nunes

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Abstract:

Using the annual dataset from 1991–2020, the present investigation aims to analyse the impact of climatic factors such as average yearly rainfall, average yearly temperature and carbon dioxide emission, as well as non-climatic factors such as fertiliser usage and area under production, on horticulture production (HP) in India.  The auto-regressive distributed lag model was employed in the study to verify long and short-term cointegration.  The results of the bound testing method validated that the underlying variables have a stable and long-term relationship.  According to Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimations, short-term and long-term rainfall improves HP with coefficient value of 0.18 and 0.24, respectively.  On the other hand, carbon dioxide emissions have a detrimental long-term impact (0.04), whereas area, temperature and fertilizer have a negative impact on horticultural production in the short run with a value of -0.32, -0.20 and -0.12 respectively.  These results have significant policy ramifications for India.  To lessen cultivation of horticulture susceptibility to these above-mentioned factors, for instance, better varieties of crops should be introduced through formal institutions under relaxed conditions and low borrowing rates.  Policymakers should encourage climate-resilient crop types through low-interest loans and institutional assistance in order to increase horticulture resilience. Promoting organic agricultural methods can improve soil health over the long run by lowering reliance on chemical fertilisers. Furthermore, horticultural output may be sustained in the face of changing environmental and climatic difficulties by investing in carbon capture technology in agriculture.

Keywords:

ARDL; Carbon Dioxide Emission; Horticultural Production; Organic farming; Rainfall; Temperature  

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