The Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Punjab: A Time Series Approach

Yasser Hussain^1* and  Aasima Nazir²

¹Department of Economics, Govt. Degree (PG) College Bhadarwah Doda, Jammu and Kashmir, India

²Department of Economics Govt. Higher Secondary School Goha, Marmat, Jammu and Kashmir, India

Corresponding Author Email:yasserrather1993@gmail.com

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CARJ.14.1.4

Article Publishing History

Received: 09 Jan 2026
Accepted: 25 Feb 2026
Published Online: 17 Mar 2026

Review Details

Reviewed by: Dr. Yogendra Singh
Second Review by: Dr. Aparna Gunjal
Final Approval by: Dr. Torit Baran Bagchi

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Abstract:

This paper investigates the trends and impacts of climate change on wheat production in Punjab. Employing an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model spanning from 1990 to 2021, the study examines the relationship between climate variables and wheat production over short and long terms. The findings reveal that rainfall and minimum temperature positively influence wheat production, whereas maximum temperature exhibits a negative impact. These results unveil the complex interplay between climate change and wheat cultivation, offering crucial insights for policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Keywords:

Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model; Climate change; Punjab; Rainfall; Temperature; Wheat production

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