Identification of Precipitation Trends, Evapotranspiration Variability and its Impact on Grain Crop Productivity in Baghmati-Kosi Doab (2002-2023)

Manu Raj Sharmaand Nandan Kumar Satyam^*

University Department of Geography, Remote Sensing Lab, Advance Research Centre, Lalit Narayan Mithila University, Darbhanga, Bihar, India.

Corresponding Author E-mail: nksatyam786@gmail.com

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CARJ.13.1.12

Article Publishing History

Received: 21 Jan 2025
Accepted: 09 Mar 2025
Published Online: 15 Mar 2025

Review Details

Reviewed by: Dr. N. Ashok Kumar
Second Review by: Dr. Samir Albadri
Third Review by: Dr. Ahmet Ertek

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Abstract:

This study investigates the impact of rainfall variability on cereal crop productivity in the Baghmati-Kosi Doab (BKD) region of North Bihar, India, over three decades (1993–2022). The study identifies a declining trend in annual rainfall based on the Modified Mann-Kendall test (Z-Score = -1.28) and Sen’s slope estimator (-8.86mm/year). The analysis reveals significant variability in actual evapotranspiration (ET) compared to stable potential evapotranspiration (PET), indicating growing water availability challenges. Crop productivity trends suggest that maize, a relatively drought-resilient crop, showed consistent improvements. In contrast, wheat experienced moderate growth, and rice productivity stagnated due to its water-intensive nature. The findings highlight that declining rainfall and fluctuating ET pose significant risks to agricultural productivity, especially for water-dependent crops like rice, underscoring the vulnerability of the region's agriculture. The study emphasizes the critical need for adaptive strategies, including the adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties, efficient irrigation systems, and sustainable groundwater management.

Keywords:

Baghmati-Kosi Doab; Crop productivity; Evapotranspiration; Rainfall variability; Water management

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